Threads · course · H82-trainer-poor-at-this-course
H82: trainer poor at this course
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.007 on 24398 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H82: trainer poor at this course KILLED red
because NEGATIVE: the trainer's earlier runners here have had under 60% of the winners their prices implied (40+ runners).
tc_runs >= 40 AND tc_wins <= 0.6 * tc_exp
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.01 on 24,398 bets, by period 1.00 · 1.02 · 0.99. info
Betfair SP return -4.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.02. Zone: all. On H82: trainer poor at this course
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-227,1841.002023 to a year ago12,4811.02Last year4,7330.99Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H82: trainer poor at this course Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.007 on 24398 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
NEGATIVE: the trainer's earlier runners here have had under 60% of the winners their prices implied (40+ runners).