H84: in front too far from home

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H84: in front too far from home PROMISING green

   because Took the lead a long way out last time and was run down: ridden for speed it did not have, or sent too soon.

   lt_front_too_soon = 1 AND last_position > 1

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.03 on 1,348 bets, by period 0.97 · 1.07. info

   Betfair SP return +3.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.07. Zone: all. On H84: in front too far from home

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half5340.97

   Later half8141.07

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   beaten 5L or less: A/E 1.00 on 913 bets, by period 0.93 · 1.04. info

   Betfair SP return -5.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H84: in front too far from home

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half3430.93

   Later half5701.04

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   down in trip: A/E 1.04 on 307 bets, by period 0.77 · 1.23. info

   Betfair SP return -14.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.77 to 1.23. Zone: all. On H84: in front too far from home

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1240.77

   Later half1831.23

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 1.06 on 400 bets, by period 1.04 · 1.09. info

   Betfair SP return +14.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.05). Zone: all. On H84: in front too far from home

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2471.04

   Later half1531.09

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H84: in front too far from home Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [jumps] GREEN A/E 1.061 on 400 bets (broad RED)

7. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   H84-in-front-too-far-from-home (H84: in front too far from home) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.03 on 1348 bets (periods 0.97 / 1.07); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H84-in-front-too-far-from-home