H87: lost ground through the race

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H87: lost ground through the race PROMISING green

   because Finished at least four places worse than it sat in mid-race: stopped. Is that a horse to forgive or to avoid?

   lt_mid_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position >= lt_mid_position + 4

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.07 on 2,247 bets, by period 1.06 · 1.08. info

   Betfair SP return +6.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.02). Zone: all. On H87: lost ground through the race

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half8441.06

   Later half1,4031.08

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   down in trip: A/E 0.97 on 680 bets, by period 1.15 · 0.84. info

   Betfair SP return +3.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.84 to 1.15. Zone: all. On H87: lost ground through the race

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2531.15

   Later half4270.84

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   down in class: A/E 0.90 on 114 bets, by period 0.95 · 0.82. info

   Betfair SP return +5.1%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H87: lost ground through the race

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half650.95

   Later half490.82

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   first-time headgear: A/E 1.00 on 238 bets, by period 1.11 · 0.92. info

   Betfair SP return +41.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.92 to 1.11. Zone: all. On H87: lost ground through the race

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half971.11

   Later half1410.92

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H87: lost ground through the race Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.074 on 2247 bets (broad GREEN)

7. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   H87-lost-ground-through-the-race (H87: lost ground through the race) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.07 on 2247 bets (periods 1.06 / 1.08); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H87-lost-ground-through-the-race