Threads · letters · H98-brought-down-or-unseated

H98: brought down or unseated

Hypotheses: 12 (3 alive)
Depth: 4
Best rung: Live
Open questions: 9
Last activity: 16 Oct, 13:51

Where it stands: fails: A/E 0.994, needs 1.05; p 0.6058, needs 0.05 or lower; periods [1.01, 0.96], each needs 1.0; A/E 0.994 against same-race control 0.995, needs 0.03 above (not a niche pass: A/E 0.994 below 1.05; p 0.6058069056779608 above 0.5; does not beat the same-race control 0.995)

The tree

PROMISINGA/E 1.07 · 464H98: brought down or unseatedimportgreen

Still open

Do `last_code IN ('BD','UR')` and `last_non_finish_code IN ('BD','UR')` select the same runners? open
Does a quick return after an unseat or brought-down beat a slow return, as the 'had no race, still fresh' mechanism requires? testing
Why did H-da5bbd88's vault query return 0 bets? Is last_non_finish_code ('every non-finisher is PU before 2025') structurally empty in the vault window, which would make every BD/UR vault verdict void? open
Is the going-well lift concentrated in the roughly 2/1 to 7/1 bands, given that the 'up to 14/1' band scored 0.91 on 98 and evens-or-shorter 0.56 on 10? open
Is last_fell_going_well flagged at similar rates in GB and Ireland among fallers and unseaters, or does a difference in comment wording or coverage explain GB 1.27 against IRE 0.80? open
Is the weak-visible-form lift (best_last3_beaten > 5 at 14/1 or shorter) specific to horses that departed last time, or shared by any jumps runner with poor recent form at a short price? testing
Why do the going-well rules repeatedly split GB high and Ireland low (1.26 against 0.80, and 1.56 against 0.96)? Is last_fell_going_well coded differently for Irish comments? open
Is the Irish lift for jumps departures (fallers 1.21, not-going-well departures 1.27) a real Irish effect, or noise that flips between sibling rules (going-well IRE 0.80, weak-form IRE 0.96)? open
Is the up-to-3/1 lift in jumps departure rules just the general short-price end of the jumps market in this window (October 2025 on), shared by runners that completed last time? testing

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H98: brought down or unseated PROMISING green
because Brought down or unseated its rider last time: nothing wrong with the horse, and it had no race.
```
last_code IN ('BD', 'UR')
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.10 on 612 bets, by period 1.17 · 1.02. info
Betfair SP return +140.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.15). Zone: all. On

Where it started

Brought down or unseated its rider last time: nothing wrong with the horse, and it had no race.

H98: brought down or unseated

Hypotheses

12 (3 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Live

Open questions

Last activity

16 Oct, 13:51

The tree

PROMISINGA/E 1.07 · 464H98: brought down or unseatedimportgreen

Still open

Do `last_code IN ('BD','UR')` and `last_non_finish_code IN ('BD','UR')` select the same runners? open
Does a quick return after an unseat or brought-down beat a slow return, as the 'had no race, still fresh' mechanism requires? testing
Why did H-da5bbd88's vault query return 0 bets? Is last_non_finish_code ('every non-finisher is PU before 2025') structurally empty in the vault window, which would make every BD/UR vault verdict void? open
Is the going-well lift concentrated in the roughly 2/1 to 7/1 bands, given that the 'up to 14/1' band scored 0.91 on 98 and evens-or-shorter 0.56 on 10? open
Is last_fell_going_well flagged at similar rates in GB and Ireland among fallers and unseaters, or does a difference in comment wording or coverage explain GB 1.27 against IRE 0.80? open
Is the weak-visible-form lift (best_last3_beaten > 5 at 14/1 or shorter) specific to horses that departed last time, or shared by any jumps runner with poor recent form at a short price? testing
Why do the going-well rules repeatedly split GB high and Ireland low (1.26 against 0.80, and 1.56 against 0.96)? Is last_fell_going_well coded differently for Irish comments? open
Is the Irish lift for jumps departures (fallers 1.21, not-going-well departures 1.27) a real Irish effect, or noise that flips between sibling rules (going-well IRE 0.80, weak-form IRE 0.96)? open
Is the up-to-3/1 lift in jumps departure rules just the general short-price end of the jumps market in this window (October 2025 on), shared by runners that completed last time? testing

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H98: brought down or unseated PROMISING green
because Brought down or unseated its rider last time: nothing wrong with the horse, and it had no race.
```
last_code IN ('BD', 'UR')
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.10 on 612 bets, by period 1.17 · 1.02. info
Betfair SP return +140.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.15). Zone: all. On

Where it started

Brought down or unseated its rider last time: nothing wrong with the horse, and it had no race.