Threads · stamina · IQ101-false-stayer
IQ101: false stayer
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: best [soft or heavy today] AMBER A/E 1.161 on 120 bets
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
IQ101: false stayer KILLED amber
because NEGATIVE: a chase of 3m+. Placed over 3m+ before, but only in the easier half of chases by what they demanded, and it has never had more left than expected late in a hard chase. It has won over the distance without being asked the question.
race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND st_placed_3m_measured >= 1 AND st_placed_3m_top_demand < 0.5 AND coalesce(st_best_hard, -99) <= 0
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.04 on 400 bets, by period 1.06 · 1.00. info
Betfair SP return +7.9%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.06. Zone: all. On IQ101: false stayer
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half3151.06Later half851.00Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
today forecast to be a test: A/E 1.09 on 179 bets, by period 1.04. info
Betfair SP return -2.6%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ101: false stayer
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half1641.04Later half15–Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
today not forecast to be a test: A/E 1.02 on 221 bets, by period 1.07 · 0.91. info
Betfair SP return +16.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.07. Zone: all. On IQ101: false stayer
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half1511.07Later half700.91Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
soft or heavy today: A/E 1.16 on 120 bets, by period 1.17. info
Betfair SP return +24.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ101: false stayer
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half1161.17Later half4–Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.02 on 316 bets, by period 1.06 · 0.88. info
Betfair SP return +7.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.88 to 1.06. Zone: all. On IQ101: false stayer
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half2471.06Later half690.88Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Killed15 Oct, 23:10
IQ101: false stayer Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [soft or heavy today] AMBER A/E 1.161 on 120 bets
Where it started
NEGATIVE: a chase of 3m+. Placed over 3m+ before, but only in the easier half of chases by what they demanded, and it has never had more left than expected late in a hard chase. It has won over the distance without being asked the question.