IQ102: true stayer

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ102: true stayer KILLED amber

   because A chase of 3m+. Placed over 3m+ before AND has had more left than expected late in a hard chase. Proven on paper and physically: the false stayer's opposite.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND st_placed_3m = 1 AND st_best_hard > 0

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.04 on 581 bets, by period 1.05 · 1.02. info

   Betfair SP return +1.9%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.03). Zone: all. On IQ102: true stayer

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half4441.05

   Later half1371.02

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   today forecast to be a test: A/E 1.00 on 271 bets, by period 0.96. info

   Betfair SP return -6.3%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ102: true stayer

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2580.96

   Later half13–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   today not forecast to be a test: A/E 1.07 on 310 bets, by period 1.12 · 0.98. info

   Betfair SP return +9.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.12. Zone: all. On IQ102: true stayer

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1861.12

   Later half1240.98

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   soft or heavy today: A/E 0.84 on 134 bets, by period 0.80. info

   Betfair SP return -2.4%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ102: true stayer

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1290.80

   Later half5–

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.01 on 458 bets, by period 1.01 · 0.99. info

   Betfair SP return -8.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.01. Zone: all. On IQ102: true stayer

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half3351.01

   Later half1230.99

7. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ102: true stayer Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [today not forecast to be a test] AMBER A/E 1.066 on 310 bets