IQ103: control not placed over 3m

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ103: control not placed over 3m KILLED red

   because CONTROL: a chase of 3m+, and the horse has never won or been placed in one. Stamina to prove, on paper.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND st_placed_3m = 0

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.04 on 1,193 bets, by period 1.06 · 0.97. info

   Betfair SP return -3.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.06. Zone: all. On IQ103: control not placed over 3m

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half9601.06

   Later half2330.97

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ103: control not placed over 3m Discovery → KILLEDimport: control; best [broad] RED A/E 1.038 on 1193 bets