IQ104: hidden stayer

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ104: hidden stayer KILLED amber

   because A chase of 3m+. Never won or placed over 3m+, but has had more left than expected late in a hard chase. The form book says stamina to prove; it has already passed a harder examination than most that have won over the trip.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND st_placed_3m = 0 AND st_best_hard > 0

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.22 on 165 bets, by period 1.25. info

   Betfair SP return +8.8%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ104: hidden stayer

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1301.25

   Later half35–

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   never run over 3m+ and the hard chase was shorter: A/E 1.36 on 84 bets, by period 1.33. info

   Betfair SP return -1.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ104: hidden stayer

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half671.33

   Later half17–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   half a standard deviation or more: A/E 1.14 on 99 bets, by period 1.18. info

   Betfair SP return -30.0%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ104: hidden stayer

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half781.18

   Later half21–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   today forecast to be a test: A/E 1.07 on 82 bets, by period 1.16. info

   Betfair SP return +24.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ104: hidden stayer

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half761.16

   Later half6–

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.23 on 122 bets, by period 1.25. info

   Betfair SP return +7.0%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ104: hidden stayer

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half911.25

   Later half31–

7. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ104: hidden stayer Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [never run over 3m+ and the hard chase was shorter] AMBER A/E 1.357 on 84 bets