IQ120: failed first 3m try pace excuse

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ120: failed first 3m try pace excuse KILLED amber

   because LOOK ONLY: second chase at 3m+ after a first that failed in a front-loaded race with the horse up with the pace.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND f3_failed = 1 AND f3_tilt IS NOT NULL AND f3_tilt > 0 AND ((f3_gap IS NOT NULL AND f3_gap <= 0.77) OR (f3_gap IS NULL AND f3_style IN ('led', 'prominent')))

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.53 on 26 bets. info

   Zone: all. On IQ120: failed first 3m try pace excuse

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half19–

   Later half7–

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ120: failed first 3m try pace excuse Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.53 on 26 bets