IQ141c: wide early recovered no

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ141c: wide early recovered no PROMISING green

   because LOOK: wide early and recovered, and it made up fewer than two.

   (race_type = 'Flat' AND last_early_setback = 1 AND last_recovered = 1 AND last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5) AND l_gained_mid IS NOT NULL AND NOT (l_gained_mid + l_gained_final >= 2)

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.62 on 159 bets, by period 1.37 · 1.80. info

   Betfair SP return +59.6%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.43). Zone: all. On IQ141c: wide early recovered no

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half661.37

   Later half931.80

3. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ141c: wide early recovered no Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.619 on 159 bets

4. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   IQ141c-wide-early-recovered-no (IQ141c: wide early recovered no) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.62 on 159 bets (periods 1.37 / 1.80); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ141c-wide-early-recovered-no