Threads · trait · IQ15-slow-to-recover-time-after-time

IQ15: slow to recover time after time

Hypotheses: 1 (0 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Discovery
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: best [stiff fences or high casualties] AMBER A/E 1.128 on 1023 bets

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
IQ15: slow to recover time after time KILLED amber
because NEGATIVE: among the slowest quarter of the field to recover after its obstacles in two or more of its last three runs in today's code.
```
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_recovery_slow3 >= 2
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.05 on 3,294 bets, by period 0.93 · 1.11. info
Betfair SP return +24.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.11. Zone: all. On IQ15: slow to recover time after time
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half1,1970.93
Later half2,0971.11
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
chase: A/E 1.01 on 963 bets, by period 0.88 · 1.10. info
Betfair SP return +4.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.88 to 1.10. Zone: all. On IQ15: slow to recover time after time
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half3810.88
Later half5821.10
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
stiff fences or high casualties: A/E 1.13 on 1,023 bets, by period 0.99 · 1.25. info
Betfair SP return +9.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.25. Zone: all. On IQ15: slow to recover time after time
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half5120.99
Later half5111.25
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
galloping track: A/E 0.99 on 743 bets, by period 0.92 · 1.09. info
Betfair SP return +107.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.92 to 1.09. Zone: all. On IQ15: slow to recover time after time
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half4360.92
Later half3071.09
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
sharp track: A/E 1.00 on 1,685 bets, by period 0.91 · 1.03. info
Betfair SP return -5.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.03. Zone: all. On IQ15: slow to recover time after time
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half4170.91
Later half1,2681.03
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Killed15 Oct, 23:10
IQ15: slow to recover time after time Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [stiff fences or high casualties] AMBER A/E 1.128 on 1023 bets

Where it started

NEGATIVE: among the slowest quarter of the field to recover after its obstacles in two or more of its last three runs in today's code.

IQ15: slow to recover time after time

Hypotheses

1 (0 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Discovery

Open questions

Last activity

15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: best [stiff fences or high casualties] AMBER A/E 1.128 on 1023 bets

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
IQ15: slow to recover time after time KILLED amber
because NEGATIVE: among the slowest quarter of the field to recover after its obstacles in two or more of its last three runs in today's code.
```
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_recovery_slow3 >= 2
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.05 on 3,294 bets, by period 0.93 · 1.11. info
Betfair SP return +24.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.11. Zone: all. On IQ15: slow to recover time after time
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half1,1970.93
Later half2,0971.11
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
chase: A/E 1.01 on 963 bets, by period 0.88 · 1.10. info
Betfair SP return +4.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.88 to 1.10. Zone: all. On IQ15: slow to recover time after time
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half3810.88
Later half5821.10
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
stiff fences or high casualties: A/E 1.13 on 1,023 bets, by period 0.99 · 1.25. info
Betfair SP return +9.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.25. Zone: all. On IQ15: slow to recover time after time
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half5120.99
Later half5111.25
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
galloping track: A/E 0.99 on 743 bets, by period 0.92 · 1.09. info
Betfair SP return +107.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.92 to 1.09. Zone: all. On IQ15: slow to recover time after time
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half4360.92
Later half3071.09
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
sharp track: A/E 1.00 on 1,685 bets, by period 0.91 · 1.03. info
Betfair SP return -5.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.03. Zone: all. On IQ15: slow to recover time after time
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half4170.91
Later half1,2681.03
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Killed15 Oct, 23:10
IQ15: slow to recover time after time Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [stiff fences or high casualties] AMBER A/E 1.128 on 1023 bets

Where it started

NEGATIVE: among the slowest quarter of the field to recover after its obstacles in two or more of its last three runs in today's code.