IQ150a: wide fast

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ150a: wide fast PROMISING green

   because Wide trip, beaten under five, top speed in the upper half.

   last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5 AND last_slow_start = 0 AND NOT coalesce(last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND (last_position - 1.0) / max(last_field_size - 1, 1) <= 0.4, 0) AND l_top_speed_pct IS NOT NULL AND last_raced_wide = 1 AND l_top_speed_pct >= 0.5

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.35 on 731 bets, by period 1.18 · 1.53. info

   Betfair SP return +70.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.35). Zone: all. On IQ150a: wide fast

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half3611.18

   Later half3701.53

3. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ150a: wide fast Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.348 on 731 bets

4. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   IQ150a-wide-fast (IQ150a: wide fast) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.35 on 731 bets (periods 1.18 / 1.53); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ150a-wide-fast