IQ152c: poor jump index broad

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ152c: poor jump index broad KILLED red

   because Broad failure: Jump Index in the bottom quarter and two or three of the others in their bad quarter too. Predicted the more ominous.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND l_jump_index_pct <= 0.25 AND ((l_lgj_pct <= 0.25) + (l_speed_lost_pct <= 0.25) + (l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.75)) >= 2

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.00 on 4,139 bets, by period 0.99 · 1.02. info

   Betfair SP return +18.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.02. Zone: all. On IQ152c: poor jump index broad

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2,9220.99

   Later half1,2171.02

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ152c: poor jump index broad Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] RED A/E 0.998 on 4139 bets