Threads · one-off · IQ20-one-bad-jumping-day-from-a-good-jumper
IQ20: one bad jumping day from a good jumper
- Hypotheses
- 1 (1 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Promising
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 16 Oct, 10:10
Where it stands: IQ20-one-bad-jumping-day-from-a-good-jumper (IQ20: one bad jumping day from a good jumper) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.08 on 732 bets (periods 1.00 / 1.13); now PROMISING.
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
IQ20: one bad jumping day from a good jumper PROMISING green
because Its latest run in today's code was in the bottom quarter of the field for ground gained jumping, when its earlier runs averaged in the better 40%. A bad day, not a bad jumper: the measured version of the one-off jumping error.
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_lgj_pct_last <= 0.25 AND s_lgj_pct_prev >= 0.6made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.08 on 732 bets, by period 1.00 · 1.13. info
Betfair SP return +24.7%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.13. Zone: all. On IQ20: one bad jumping day from a good jumper
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half2491.00Later half4831.13Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
chase: A/E 1.15 on 247 bets, by period 0.94 · 1.31. info
Betfair SP return +22.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.94 to 1.31. Zone: all. On IQ20: one bad jumping day from a good jumper
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half950.94Later half1521.31Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
that run was its last run: A/E 1.09 on 677 bets, by period 1.01 · 1.14. info
Betfair SP return +29.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.13). Zone: all. On IQ20: one bad jumping day from a good jumper
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half2431.01Later half4341.14Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.07 on 499 bets, by period 1.06 · 1.08. info
Betfair SP return +17.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.02). Zone: all. On IQ20: one bad jumping day from a good jumper
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half1721.06Later half3271.08Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
IQ20: one bad jumping day from a good jumper Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [that run was its last run] GREEN A/E 1.095 on 677 bets
Observed16 Oct, 10:10
IQ20-one-bad-jumping-day-from-a-good-jumper (IQ20: one bad jumping day from a good jumper) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.08 on 732 bets (periods 1.00 / 1.13); now PROMISING.
result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ20-one-bad-jumping-day-from-a-good-jumper
Where it started
Its latest run in today's code was in the bottom quarter of the field for ground gained jumping, when its earlier runs averaged in the better 40%. A bad day, not a bad jumper: the measured version of the one-off jumping error.