IQ37: lost ground jumping without going fast

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ37: lost ground jumping without going fast PROMISING green

   because NEGATIVE: last run in the slower half for speed into its obstacles and still in the bottom quarter for ground gained at them. No excuse of pace: it jumps slowly.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_entry_speed_pct <= 0.5 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.06 on 7,438 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.16. info

   Betfair SP return +6.7%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.14). Zone: all. On IQ37: lost ground jumping without going fast

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half5,1811.02

   Later half2,2571.16

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   chase today: A/E 0.97 on 2,305 bets, by period 0.93 · 1.08. info

   Betfair SP return -9.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.08. Zone: all. On IQ37: lost ground jumping without going fast

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1,7000.93

   Later half6051.08

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   last run in today's code: A/E 1.09 on 6,407 bets, by period 1.06 · 1.19. info

   Betfair SP return +11.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.13). Zone: all. On IQ37: lost ground jumping without going fast

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half4,5291.06

   Later half1,8781.19

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.06 on 3,153 bets, by period 1.03 · 1.13. info

   Betfair SP return +6.9%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.10). Zone: all. On IQ37: lost ground jumping without going fast

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2,2091.03

   Later half9441.13

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ37: lost ground jumping without going fast Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [last run in today's code] GREEN A/E 1.095 on 6407 bets

7. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   IQ37-lost-ground-jumping-without-going-fast (IQ37: lost ground jumping without going fast) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.06 on 7438 bets (periods 1.02 / 1.16); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ37-lost-ground-jumping-without-going-fast