Threads · jumping-holdout · IQ50-costly-jumping-out-of-character
IQ50: costly jumping out of character
- Hypotheses
- 1 (1 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Shadow
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 16 Oct, 23:21
Where it stands: forward A/E 0.0 on 0 bets, SP ROI None%, BSP ROI None% (p None)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
IQ50: costly jumping out of character SHADOW
because Last run, in today's code: bottom fifth of the field for ground gained jumping, slower half to recover, completed and beaten, from a horse whose earlier runs averaged in the better 40%. A bad day from a good jumper.
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_same_code = 1 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.2 AND l_recovery_time_pct >= 0.5 AND last_position > 1 AND s_lgj_pct_prev >= 0.6made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 1.16 on 1,340 bets, by period 1.16. info
Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ50: costly jumping out of character
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-220–2023 to a year ago1,3401.16Last year0–Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Britain: A/E 1.15 on 1,043 bets, by period 1.15. info
Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ50: costly jumping out of character
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-220–2023 to a year ago1,0431.15Last year0–Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Ireland: A/E 1.19 on 297 bets, by period 1.19. info
Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ50: costly jumping out of character
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-220–2023 to a year ago2971.19Last year0–Tested15 Oct, 23:10
discovery year (reference): A/E 1.05 on 815 bets, by period 1.05. info
Betfair SP return +12.7%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ50: costly jumping out of character
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-220–2023 to a year ago0–Last year8151.05Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
IQ50: costly jumping out of character Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
IQ50: costly jumping out of character Vault → SHADOWimport: holdout SUPPORTIVE: A/E 1.158 on 1340 (GB 1.152, IRE 1.189), p 0.0396 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests; LEARNINGS read it as holding
Tested15 Oct, 23:21
forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2} on 0 bets. info
Zone: forward. On IQ50: costly jumping out of character
Observed16 Oct, 10:10
IQ50-costly-jumping-out-of-character (IQ50: costly jumping out of character) pointed the predicted way (positive) on the sealed holdout but too weakly to prove it: A/E 1.158 on 1340 bets (p 0.040, false-discovery threshold 0.0034); tracked forward in SHADOW.
result0.35waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ50-costly-jumping-out-of-character
Tested16 Oct, 23:21
forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2} on 0 bets. info
Zone: forward. On IQ50: costly jumping out of character
Where it started
Last run, in today's code: bottom fifth of the field for ground gained jumping, slower half to recover, completed and beaten, from a horse whose earlier runs averaged in the better 40%. A bad day from a good jumper.