Threads · jumping-holdout · IQ55-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-as-a-rule
IQ55: failed to finish poor jumper as a rule
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Vault
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: holdout CONTRADICTED: A/E 0.994 on 1560 (GB 1.005, IRE 0.95), p 0.5373 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
IQ55: failed to finish poor jumper as a rule KILLED
because Failed to finish last time, in today's code, from a horse whose earlier runs averaged in the worse 40% of its fields on Jump Index. The market reads the failure as proof; it is only the horse's usual round.
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_pct_prev <= 0.4made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 0.99 on 1,560 bets, by period 0.99. info
Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ55: failed to finish poor jumper as a rule
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-220–2023 to a year ago1,5600.99Last year0–Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Britain: A/E 1.00 on 1,189 bets, by period 1.01. info
Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ55: failed to finish poor jumper as a rule
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-220–2023 to a year ago1,1891.01Last year0–Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Ireland: A/E 0.95 on 371 bets, by period 0.95. info
Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ55: failed to finish poor jumper as a rule
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-220–2023 to a year ago3710.95Last year0–Tested15 Oct, 23:10
discovery year (reference): A/E 1.13 on 964 bets, by period 1.12. info
Betfair SP return +15.7%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ55: failed to finish poor jumper as a rule
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-220–2023 to a year ago0–Last year9641.12Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
IQ55: failed to finish poor jumper as a rule Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen
Killed15 Oct, 23:10
IQ55: failed to finish poor jumper as a rule Vault → KILLEDfailed the vaultimport: holdout CONTRADICTED: A/E 0.994 on 1560 (GB 1.005, IRE 0.95), p 0.5373 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests
Where it started
Failed to finish last time, in today's code, from a horse whose earlier runs averaged in the worse 40% of its fields on Jump Index. The market reads the failure as proof; it is only the horse's usual round.