IQ58: failed to finish poor jumper bad day

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ58: failed to finish poor jumper bad day KILLED

   because D: failed to finish last time in today's code; earlier runs averaged in the worse 40% of its fields on Jump Index, and this run was 0.5 or more below its own average.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position IS NULL AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_pct_prev <= 0.4 AND l_jump_index - s_jump_index_prev <= -0.5

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 0.79 on 505 bets, by period 0.79. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ58: failed to finish poor jumper bad day

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago5050.79

   Last year0–

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Britain: A/E 0.75 on 360 bets, by period 0.75. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ58: failed to finish poor jumper bad day

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago3600.75

   Last year0–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Ireland: A/E 0.91 on 145 bets, by period 0.91. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ58: failed to finish poor jumper bad day

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago1450.91

   Last year0–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   discovery year (reference): A/E 1.05 on 343 bets, by period 1.05. info

   Betfair SP return +19.9%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ58: failed to finish poor jumper bad day

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year3431.05

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ58: failed to finish poor jumper bad day Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen

7. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ58: failed to finish poor jumper bad day Vault → KILLEDfailed the vaultimport: holdout CONTRADICTED: A/E 0.789 on 505 (GB 0.753, IRE 0.908), p 0.9209 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

8. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   IQ58-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-bad-day (IQ58: failed to finish poor jumper bad day) was predicted positive but went the other way on the sealed holdout: A/E 0.79 on 505 bets.

   surprise0.40waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ58-failed-to-finish-poor-jumper-bad-day