IQ64b: pulled up jumping as usual all prices

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ64b: pulled up jumping as usual all prices PROMISING green

   because [all prices] Jump Index no more than 0.15 below the horse's own earlier average in this code. Whatever stopped it, it was not the jumping: the more worrying case.

   last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield') AND 1 = 1 AND l_same_code = 1 AND s_jump_index_prev IS NOT NULL AND l_jump_index - s_jump_index_prev >= -0.15

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.36 on 267 bets, by period 1.29 · 1.53. info

   Betfair SP return +51.8%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.24). Zone: all. On IQ64b: pulled up jumping as usual all prices

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1711.29

   Later half961.53

3. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ64b: pulled up jumping as usual all prices Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.364 on 267 bets

4. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   IQ64b-pulled-up-jumping-as-usual-all prices (IQ64b: pulled up jumping as usual all prices) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.36 on 267 bets (periods 1.29 / 1.53); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ64b-pulled-up-jumping-as-usual-all prices