IQ82: jumps folds when challenged

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ82: jumps folds when challenged KILLED amber

   because NEGATIVE: jumps; folded under a late challenge in two or more earlier runs in today's code and has never resisted one.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_folded_n >= 2 AND s_resist_n = 0

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.09 on 552 bets, by period 1.25 · 0.92. info

   Betfair SP return +14.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.92 to 1.25. Zone: all. On IQ82: jumps folds when challenged

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2861.25

   Later half2660.92

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   chase: A/E 0.74 on 142 bets, by period 0.73 · 0.75. info

   Betfair SP return -23.2%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ82: jumps folds when challenged

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half720.73

   Later half700.75

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   stiff finish: A/E 1.02 on 146 bets, by period 1.15 · 0.85. info

   Betfair SP return +26.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.85 to 1.15. Zone: all. On IQ82: jumps folds when challenged

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half891.15

   Later half570.85

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   three miles or more: A/E 0.93 on 71 bets, by period 0.87. info

   Betfair SP return -33.8%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ82: jumps folds when challenged

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half31–

   Later half400.87

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   ten runners or fewer: A/E 1.01 on 312 bets, by period 1.25 · 0.75. info

   Betfair SP return -9.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.75 to 1.25. Zone: all. On IQ82: jumps folds when challenged

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1621.25

   Later half1500.75

7. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   soft or heavy: A/E 1.18 on 113 bets, by period 1.20. info

   Betfair SP return -24.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ82: jumps folds when challenged

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1071.20

   Later half6–

8. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.02 on 415 bets, by period 1.14 · 0.90. info

   Betfair SP return +0.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.14. Zone: all. On IQ82: jumps folds when challenged

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2121.14

   Later half2030.90

9. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ82: jumps folds when challenged Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [soft or heavy] AMBER A/E 1.175 on 113 bets

10. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

    IQ82-jumps-folds-when-challenged (IQ82: jumps folds when challenged) was predicted negative but went the other way in the earlier research: A/E 1.09 on 552 bets (periods 1.25 / 0.92).

    surprise0.40waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ82-jumps-folds-when-challenged