Threads · shock · S2-chase-completed-normal-habitual-poor-jumper
S2: chase completed normal habitual poor jumper
- Hypotheses
- 4 (4 alive)
- Depth
- 1
- Best rung
- Shadow
- Open questions
- 3
- Last activity
- 17 Oct, 03:50
Where it stands: Is the holdout lift caused by the poor-jumping condition (e), or would any horse that completed a chase last time to expectation (s normal) show it?
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
S2: chase completed normal habitual poor jumper SHADOW
because Shock test S2-chase-completed-normal-habitual-poor-jumper (shock.py, frozen before the holdout was fetched)
code = 'Chase' AND finished = 1 AND s BETWEEN -0.75 AND 0.75 AND e <= -0.3104024419783082
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 1.14 on 1,077 bets, by period 1.14. info
Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On S2: chase completed normal habitual poor jumper
Where it started
Shock test S2-chase-completed-normal-habitual-poor-jumper (shock.py, frozen before the holdout was fetched)