Threads · shock · S3-chase-not-completed-large-negative
S3: chase not completed large negative
- Hypotheses
- 3 (3 alive)
- Depth
- 1
- Best rung
- Shadow
- Open questions
- 2
- Last activity
- 17 Oct, 02:43
Where it stands: Among last-time chase non-finishers, does a deeper jumping shock (more negative s) lead to a higher A/E next time, or is s irrelevant once the horse failed to finish?
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
S3: chase not completed large negative SHADOW
because Shock test S3-chase-not-completed-large-negative (shock.py, frozen before the holdout was fetched)
code = 'Chase' AND finished = 0 AND s <= -1.5
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 1.09 on 254 bets, by period 1.09. info
Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On S3: chase not completed large negative
Where it started
Shock test S3-chase-not-completed-large-negative (shock.py, frozen before the holdout was fetched)