Threads · published · SYS-chase-debut-from-a-good-yard
System: First run over fences from a yard that schools them
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- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: published system (live from 2026-10-13)
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In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
System: First run over fences from a yard that schools them LIVE
because A horse's first chase is the least predictable run of its career, and yards differ in how well prepared their chase debutants are. A yard's record with them carries forward.
race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND prior_chase_runs = 0 AND last_race_type IS NOT NULL AND yard_chase_debut_runs >= 15 AND yard_chase_debut_wins >= 1.3 * yard_chase_debut_expected
made by import
Where it started
A horse's first chase is the least predictable run of its career, and yards differ in how well prepared their chase debutants are. A yard's record with them carries forward.