VET7r: old heavy defeat declined

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   VET7r: old heavy defeat declined KILLED red

   because SECOND LOOK on rebuilt history: VET7 unchanged. Predicted level or below.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND l_same_code = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths >= 15 AND s_top_speed_rel_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_jump_index_rel_prev IS NOT NULL AND s_top_speed_rel_last < s_top_speed_rel_prev AND s_jump_index_rel_last < s_jump_index_rel_prev

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.83 on 186 bets, by period 0.95 · 0.52. info

   Betfair SP return +12.4%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On VET7r: old heavy defeat declined

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1390.95

   Later half470.52

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   VET7r: old heavy defeat declined Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] RED A/E 0.831 on 186 bets

4. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   VET7r-old-heavy-defeat-declined (VET7r: old heavy defeat declined) was predicted positive but went the other way in the earlier research: A/E 0.83 on 186 bets (periods 0.95 / 0.52).

   surprise0.40waiting for a reasoning passfrom VET7r-old-heavy-defeat-declined