Hypotheses · veterans-age · AB1-veterans-aged-10
AB1: veterans aged 10
best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.073 on 629 bets
Starts the thread “AB1: veterans aged 10” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ study
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Aged 10 in a veterans' handicap chase. Predicted below the market.
The rule
race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND lower(race_name) LIKE '%veteran%' AND age = 10
Reads: race_type, is_handicap, race_name, age
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND lower(race_name) LIKE '%veteran%' AND age = 10
- Kind
history
- Origin
research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
- Refinements
none
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 629
- A/E
- 1.07
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -11.7%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +2.2%
- 88 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 16.2%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
AB1-veterans-aged-10 Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.073 on 629 bets
· importer
import result for AB1-veterans-aged-10 (broad): info
· importer
New idea AB1-veterans-aged-10: AB1: veterans aged 10 (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.