FREERUN: raced too freely, blew up

Mechanism and rationale

Horses that go off too hot and blow up late, but otherwise jump well, are underrated next time: the cause was keenness, which may not recur and which the form figures cannot see.

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Cutoffs

{
  "Chase": {
    "early_p50": 0.13463487581902486,
    "early_p90": 3.870527707446452,
    "left_p20": -0.9062022525467641,
    "n_discovery_runs": 10197
  },
  "Hurdle": {
    "early_p50": 0.060094637380495954,
    "early_p90": 4.049787017089895,
    "left_p20": -0.9071022423005491,
    "n_discovery_runs": 27337
  },
  "from": [
    "2025-08-01",
    "2026-10-12"
  ],
  "frozen": "2026-10-15"
}

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/FREERUN_PRESPEC.md

Pass

F1 or F2 at 1.05+ on the holdout, 1.0+ every year, 0.05+ above C1

Rules

{
  "C1": "control: blew up and beaten, early at or below the median",
  "F1": "last run too hot (early >= p90 for the code), blew up (left_in_tank <= p20), beaten",
  "F2": "F1 and Jump Index percentile 0.5 or more that day",
  "F3": "F1 and early at least 3 points above its own previous mean"
}

Result (from the archive)

fail pre-measurement checks · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

–

A/E

–

winners vs the prices

SP return

–

level stakes

Betfair SP return

–

after commission

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. FREERUN-raced-too-freely Designed → KILLED import: stopped at check 1: race comments say keen on 2.8% of F1 runs against 3.1% of all finishers; absolute early speed measures the pace of the race, not the horse. Holdout not spent.

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for FREERUN-raced-too-freely (pre-measurement checks): fail

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea FREERUN-raced-too-freely: FREERUN: raced too freely, blew up (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.