Hypotheses · revert · H02-back-to-last-winning-trip

H02: back to last winning trip

KILLEDredFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.986 on 21602 bets (broad RED)

Starts the thread “H02: back to last winning trip” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the overnight batches
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

Beaten last time over a trip 2f+ away from the one it last won at; today back within a furlong of that trip.

The rule

abs(distance_yards - last_win_yards) <= 220 AND abs(last_distance_yards - last_win_yards) >= 440 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

Reads: distance_yards, last_win_yards, last_distance_yards, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: abs(distance_yards - last_win_yards) <= 220 AND abs(last_distance_yards - last_win_yards) >= 440 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)
Kind: all
Origin: research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
Refinements: none
Tier: C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 21,602
A/E: 0.99; winners vs the prices
SP return: -22.8%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: -5.3%; 3,965 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 10.7%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

2020-226,8580.99

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

H02-back-to-last-winning-trip Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.986 on 21602 bets (broad RED)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for H02-back-to-last-winning-trip (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea H02-back-to-last-winning-trip: H02: back to last winning trip (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.