H10: yard good at hurdle to chase

Mechanism and rationale

Hurdle run then a chase, from a yard whose earlier runners making that switch beat the market by 30%+.

The rule

tx_h2c_runs >= 15 AND tx_h2c_wins >= 1.3 * tx_h2c_exp

Reads: tx_h2c_runs, tx_h2c_wins, tx_h2c_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

tx_h2c_runs >= 15 AND tx_h2c_wins >= 1.3 * tx_h2c_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "has chased before",
    "rule": "(tx_h2c_runs >= 15 AND tx_h2c_wins >= 1.3 * tx_h2c_exp) AND (chase_runs >= 2)"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(tx_h2c_runs >= 15 AND tx_h2c_wins >= 1.3 * tx_h2c_exp) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info handicap · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,291

A/E

1.04

winners vs the prices

SP return

-10.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+50.0%

251 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 14.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H10-yard-good-at-hurdle-to-chase Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [has chased before] AMBER A/E 1.078 on 590 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H10-yard-good-at-hurdle-to-chase (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H10-yard-good-at-hurdle-to-chase (has chased before): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H10-yard-good-at-hurdle-to-chase (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H10-yard-good-at-hurdle-to-chase: H10: yard good at hurdle to chase (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.