H100: refused or ran out

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: refused, ran out or refused to race last time. That one IS the horse's fault.

The rule

last_code IN ('REF', 'RO', 'RR')

Reads: last_code

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

last_code IN ('REF', 'RO', 'RR')

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

none

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

61

A/E

1.34

winners vs the prices

SP return

-34.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-6.3%

61 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 9.8%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H100-refused-or-ran-out Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.336 on 61 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H100-refused-or-ran-out (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea H100-refused-or-ran-out: H100: refused or ran out (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.