H104: yard good at chase debuts

Mechanism and rationale

First run over fences from a yard whose earlier chase debutants beat the market by 30%+.

The rule

tx_chase_debut_runs >= 15 AND tx_chase_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_chase_debut_exp

Reads: tx_chase_debut_runs, tx_chase_debut_wins, tx_chase_debut_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

tx_chase_debut_runs >= 15 AND tx_chase_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_chase_debut_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "has won over hurdles",
    "rule": "(tx_chase_debut_runs >= 15 AND tx_chase_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_chase_debut_exp) AND (hurdle_wins >= 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(tx_chase_debut_runs >= 15 AND tx_chase_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_chase_debut_exp) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "non-handicap",
    "rule": "(tx_chase_debut_runs >= 15 AND tx_chase_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_chase_debut_exp) AND (is_handicap = 0)"
  }
]

Tier

A

Result (from the archive)

info non-handicap · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

304

A/E

1.11

winners vs the prices

SP return

-24.3%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+7.8%

50 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 23.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H104-yard-good-at-chase-debuts Discovery → PROMISING import: tier A: strong candidate; best [handicap] GREEN A/E 1.184 on 487 bets (broad GREEN)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H104-yard-good-at-chase-debuts (non-handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H104-yard-good-at-chase-debuts (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H104-yard-good-at-chase-debuts (has won over hurdles): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H104-yard-good-at-chase-debuts (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H104-yard-good-at-chase-debuts: H104: yard good at chase debuts (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.