H105: yard good at hurdle debuts

Mechanism and rationale

First run over hurdles from a yard whose earlier hurdle debutants beat the market by 30%+.

The rule

tx_hurdle_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_hurdle_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_hurdle_debut_exp

Reads: tx_hurdle_debut_runs, tx_hurdle_debut_wins, tx_hurdle_debut_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

tx_hurdle_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_hurdle_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_hurdle_debut_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

none

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,366

A/E

1.00

winners vs the prices

SP return

-39.8%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-25.4%

214 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 10.8%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H105-yard-good-at-hurdle-debuts Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.996 on 1366 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H105-yard-good-at-hurdle-debuts (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea H105-yard-good-at-hurdle-debuts: H105: yard good at hurdle debuts (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.