H108: yard good with first time headgear

Mechanism and rationale

First-time headgear from a yard whose earlier first-time headgear runners beat the market by 30%+ (last year only).

The rule

tx_headgear_first_runs >= 10 AND tx_headgear_first_wins >= 1.3 * tx_headgear_first_exp

Reads: tx_headgear_first_runs, tx_headgear_first_wins, tx_headgear_first_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

tx_headgear_first_runs >= 10 AND tx_headgear_first_wins >= 1.3 * tx_headgear_first_exp

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

none

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

906

A/E

0.96

winners vs the prices

SP return

-21.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-2.1%

902 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 10.9%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H108-yard-good-with-first-time-headgear Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.963 on 906 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H108-yard-good-with-first-time-headgear (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea H108-yard-good-with-first-time-headgear: H108: yard good with first time headgear (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.