H109: the handicap plot

Mechanism and rationale

Handicap debut after exactly three runs, stepping up 20%+ in trip: three quiet runs over the wrong trip, then the right one.

The rule

is_handicap = 1 AND prior_handicap_runs = 0 AND prior_runs = 3 AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.2

Reads: is_handicap, prior_handicap_runs, prior_runs, distance_yards, last_distance_yards

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

is_handicap = 1 AND prior_handicap_runs = 0 AND prior_runs = 3 AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.2

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(is_handicap = 1 AND prior_handicap_runs = 0 AND prior_runs = 3 AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.2) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(is_handicap = 1 AND prior_handicap_runs = 0 AND prior_runs = 3 AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.2) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "unplaced in all three",
    "rule": "(is_handicap = 1 AND prior_handicap_runs = 0 AND prior_runs = 3 AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.2) AND (prior_places = 0)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(is_handicap = 1 AND prior_handicap_runs = 0 AND prior_runs = 3 AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.2) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

2,556

A/E

1.05

winners vs the prices

SP return

-6.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+0.5%

401 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 15.3%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H109-the-handicap-plot Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [jumps] GREEN A/E 1.174 on 995 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H109-the-handicap-plot (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H109-the-handicap-plot (unplaced in all three): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H109-the-handicap-plot (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H109-the-handicap-plot (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for H109-the-handicap-plot (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea H109-the-handicap-plot: H109: the handicap plot (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.