H11: yard good fresh

Mechanism and rationale

First run for 150+ days from a yard whose earlier returners beat the market by 30%+.

The rule

tx_fresh_runs >= 25 AND tx_fresh_wins >= 1.3 * tx_fresh_exp

Reads: tx_fresh_runs, tx_fresh_wins, tx_fresh_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

tx_fresh_runs >= 25 AND tx_fresh_wins >= 1.3 * tx_fresh_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(tx_fresh_runs >= 25 AND tx_fresh_wins >= 1.3 * tx_fresh_exp) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "October-November",
    "rule": "(tx_fresh_runs >= 25 AND tx_fresh_wins >= 1.3 * tx_fresh_exp) AND (month IN (10, 11))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat, March-May",
    "rule": "(tx_fresh_runs >= 25 AND tx_fresh_wins >= 1.3 * tx_fresh_exp) AND (race_type = 'Flat' AND month IN (3, 4, 5))"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info Flat, March-May · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

2,486

A/E

1.07

winners vs the prices

SP return

-18.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+14.4%

456 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 11.0%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H11-yard-good-fresh Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [October-November] GREEN A/E 1.136 on 1747 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H11-yard-good-fresh (Flat, March-May): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H11-yard-good-fresh (October-November): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H11-yard-good-fresh (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H11-yard-good-fresh (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H11-yard-good-fresh: H11: yard good fresh (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.