H113: failed to finish in a war of attrition

Mechanism and rationale

Failed to finish in a jumps race where 40%+ of the field failed to finish: the race beat most of them, not just this one.

The rule

last_position IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 1 AND last_race_dnf_share >= 0.4 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')

Reads: last_position, prior_runs, last_race_dnf_share, race_type

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

last_position IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 1 AND last_race_dnf_share >= 0.4 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(last_position IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 1 AND last_race_dnf_share >= 0.4 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(last_position IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 1 AND last_race_dnf_share >= 0.4 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "less testing ground today",
    "rule": "(last_position IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 1 AND last_race_dnf_share >= 0.4 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')) AND (going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_soft', 'good_to_firm'))"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info less testing ground today · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

5,768

A/E

1.07

winners vs the prices

SP return

-21.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-24.2%

929 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 8.1%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H113-failed-to-finish-in-a-war-of-attrition Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [less testing ground today] AMBER A/E 1.068 on 5768 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H113-failed-to-finish-in-a-war-of-attrition (less testing ground today): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H113-failed-to-finish-in-a-war-of-attrition (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H113-failed-to-finish-in-a-war-of-attrition (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H113-failed-to-finish-in-a-war-of-attrition (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H113-failed-to-finish-in-a-war-of-attrition: H113: failed to finish in a war of attrition (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.