H121: handicap debut from a good yard in form

Mechanism and rationale

Handicap debut from a yard good at them that is also winning at or above its prices over the last 30 days.

The rule

tx_hcap_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_hcap_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_hcap_debut_exp AND t30_runs >= 10 AND t30_wins >= t30_exp

Reads: tx_hcap_debut_runs, tx_hcap_debut_wins, tx_hcap_debut_exp, t30_runs, t30_wins, t30_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

tx_hcap_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_hcap_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_hcap_debut_exp AND t30_runs >= 10 AND t30_wins >= t30_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(tx_hcap_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_hcap_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_hcap_debut_exp AND t30_runs >= 10 AND t30_wins >= t30_exp) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(tx_hcap_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_hcap_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_hcap_debut_exp AND t30_runs >= 10 AND t30_wins >= t30_exp) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "priced under 13/2",
    "rule": "(tx_hcap_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_hcap_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_hcap_debut_exp AND t30_runs >= 10 AND t30_wins >= t30_exp) AND (sp_decimal < 7.5)"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info priced under 13/2 · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

586

A/E

1.14

winners vs the prices

SP return

+3.3%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+57.9%

71 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 25.1%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H121-handicap-debut-from-a-good-yard-in-form Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.164 on 1811 bets (broad GREEN)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H121-handicap-debut-from-a-good-yard-in-form (priced under 13/2): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H121-handicap-debut-from-a-good-yard-in-form (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H121-handicap-debut-from-a-good-yard-in-form (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H121-handicap-debut-from-a-good-yard-in-form (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H121-handicap-debut-from-a-good-yard-in-form: H121: handicap debut from a good yard in form (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.