Hypotheses · handicap · H122-much-lighter-than-last-time
H122: much lighter than last time
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.028 on 11612 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H122: much lighter than last time” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Carries 10lb or more less than last time in a handicap of the same class or lower: a real drop, not a rise in grade.
The rule
is_handicap = 1 AND last_is_handicap = 1 AND weight_lbs <= last_weight_lbs - 10 AND race_class >= last_race_class
Reads: is_handicap, last_is_handicap, weight_lbs, last_weight_lbs, race_class, last_race_class
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
is_handicap = 1 AND last_is_handicap = 1 AND weight_lbs <= last_weight_lbs - 10 AND race_class >= last_race_class
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 11,612
- A/E
- 1.03
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -22.7%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +0.1%
- 2,142 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 9.1%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H122-much-lighter-than-last-time Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.028 on 11612 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H122-much-lighter-than-last-time (broad): info
· importer
New idea H122-much-lighter-than-last-time: H122: much lighter than last time (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.