Hypotheses · planned-move · H128-jumps-handicap-debut-up-in-trip-from-a-good-yard

H128: jumps handicap debut up in trip from a good yard

KILLEDredFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.015 on 505 bets (broad RED)

Starts the thread “H128: jumps handicap debut up in trip from a good yard” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the overnight batches
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

Jumps handicap debut stepping up in trip, from a yard good at handicap debuts: the plan, from a yard that plans.

The rule

race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND prior_handicap_runs = 0 AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND tx_hcap_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_hcap_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_hcap_debut_exp

Reads: race_type, is_handicap, prior_handicap_runs, distance_yards, last_distance_yards, tx_hcap_debut_runs, tx_hcap_debut_wins, tx_hcap_debut_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND prior_handicap_runs = 0 AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND tx_hcap_debut_runs >= 20 AND tx_hcap_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_hcap_debut_exp
Kind: all
Origin: research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
Refinements: none
Tier: C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 505
A/E: 1.01; winners vs the prices
SP return: -27.3%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: -18.2%; 111 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 9.7%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

2020-221231.30

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

H128-jumps-handicap-debut-up-in-trip-from-a-good-yard Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.015 on 505 bets (broad RED)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for H128-jumps-handicap-debut-up-in-trip-from-a-good-yard (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea H128-jumps-handicap-debut-up-in-trip-from-a-good-yard: H128: jumps handicap debut up in trip from a good yard (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.