Hypotheses · trainer-move · H13-yard-good-at-class-drops
H13: yard good at class drops
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.015 on 8660 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H13: yard good at class drops” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Dropped in class by a yard whose earlier class-droppers beat the market by 30%+.
The rule
tx_class_drop_runs >= 20 AND tx_class_drop_wins >= 1.3 * tx_class_drop_exp
Reads: tx_class_drop_runs, tx_class_drop_wins, tx_class_drop_exp
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
tx_class_drop_runs >= 20 AND tx_class_drop_wins >= 1.3 * tx_class_drop_exp
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 8,660
- A/E
- 1.01
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -21.5%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +30.5%
- 846 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 11.5%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H13-yard-good-at-class-drops Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.015 on 8660 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H13-yard-good-at-class-drops (broad): info
· importer
New idea H13-yard-good-at-class-drops: H13: yard good at class drops (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.