Hypotheses · trainer-logistics · H130-yard-at-a-course-it-never-visits
H130: yard at a course it never visits
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.974 on 5993 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H130: yard at a course it never visits” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
An established yard (600+ runners on record) with at most two earlier runners at this course: an unusual trip is made for a reason.
The rule
tc_runs <= 2 AND trainer_runs >= 600
Reads: tc_runs, trainer_runs
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
tc_runs <= 2 AND trainer_runs >= 600
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 5,993
- A/E
- 0.97
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -19.7%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +7.2%
- 1,014 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 12.9%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H130-yard-at-a-course-it-never-visits Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.974 on 5993 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H130-yard-at-a-course-it-never-visits (broad): info
· importer
New idea H130-yard-at-a-course-it-never-visits: H130: yard at a course it never visits (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.