Hypotheses · trainer-logistics · H131-yard-in-a-kind-of-race-it-rarely-contests
H131: yard in a kind of race it rarely contests
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.006 on 9998 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H131: yard in a kind of race it rarely contests” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Under 4% of the yard's runners have been in this kind of race (code and handicap or not): a Flat yard's chaser, a jumps yard's Flat maiden. Intent, or out of its depth? The market has no record to go on.
The rule
trainer_runs >= 400 AND trainer_kind_runs * 25 <= trainer_runs
Reads: trainer_runs, trainer_kind_runs
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
trainer_runs >= 400 AND trainer_kind_runs * 25 <= trainer_runs
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 9,998
- A/E
- 1.01
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -29.1%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +1.4%
- 2,213 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 10.5%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H131-yard-in-a-kind-of-race-it-rarely-contests Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.006 on 9998 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H131-yard-in-a-kind-of-race-it-rarely-contests (broad): info
· importer
New idea H131-yard-in-a-kind-of-race-it-rarely-contests: H131: yard in a kind of race it rarely contests (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.