H135: recruit to a good yard in form

Mechanism and rationale

First run for a new yard that is good with recruits and winning at or above its prices this month.

The rule

tx_new_yard_runs >= 15 AND tx_new_yard_wins >= 1.3 * tx_new_yard_exp AND t30_runs >= 10 AND t30_wins >= t30_exp

Reads: tx_new_yard_runs, tx_new_yard_wins, tx_new_yard_exp, t30_runs, t30_wins, t30_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

tx_new_yard_runs >= 15 AND tx_new_yard_wins >= 1.3 * tx_new_yard_exp AND t30_runs >= 10 AND t30_wins >= t30_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(tx_new_yard_runs >= 15 AND tx_new_yard_wins >= 1.3 * tx_new_yard_exp AND t30_runs >= 10 AND t30_wins >= t30_exp) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(tx_new_yard_runs >= 15 AND tx_new_yard_wins >= 1.3 * tx_new_yard_exp AND t30_runs >= 10 AND t30_wins >= t30_exp) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(tx_new_yard_runs >= 15 AND tx_new_yard_wins >= 1.3 * tx_new_yard_exp AND t30_runs >= 10 AND t30_wins >= t30_exp) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,014

A/E

1.04

winners vs the prices

SP return

-5.3%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-11.8%

183 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 17.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H135-recruit-to-a-good-yard-in-form Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [Flat] AMBER A/E 1.106 on 1073 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H135-recruit-to-a-good-yard-in-form (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H135-recruit-to-a-good-yard-in-form (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H135-recruit-to-a-good-yard-in-form (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H135-recruit-to-a-good-yard-in-form (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H135-recruit-to-a-good-yard-in-form: H135: recruit to a good yard in form (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.