H139: aidan obrien other strings in pattern races

Mechanism and rationale

Aidan O'Brien with two or more in a Group or Listed race, and not the shortest-priced of them. Ballydoyle second strings are run on their merits and the jockey pecking order sets the prices.

The rule

trainer LIKE 'Aidan O''Brien%' AND pattern IS NOT NULL AND n_stable >= 2 AND stable_rank >= 2

Reads: trainer, pattern, n_stable, stable_rank

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

trainer LIKE 'Aidan O''Brien%' AND pattern IS NOT NULL AND n_stable >= 2 AND stable_rank >= 2

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "Group 1",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Aidan O''Brien%' AND pattern IS NOT NULL AND n_stable >= 2 AND stable_rank >= 2) AND (pattern = 'Group 1')"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Aidan O''Brien%' AND pattern IS NOT NULL AND n_stable >= 2 AND stable_rank >= 2) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "three-year-olds",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Aidan O''Brien%' AND pattern IS NOT NULL AND n_stable >= 2 AND stable_rank >= 2) AND (age = 3)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info three-year-olds · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

461

A/E

0.73

winners vs the prices

SP return

-53.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-58.0%

87 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 4.3%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H139-aidan-obrien-other-strings-in-pattern-races Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [three-year-olds] NEGATIVE A/E 0.73 on 461 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H139-aidan-obrien-other-strings-in-pattern-races (three-year-olds): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H139-aidan-obrien-other-strings-in-pattern-races (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H139-aidan-obrien-other-strings-in-pattern-races (Group 1): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H139-aidan-obrien-other-strings-in-pattern-races (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H139-aidan-obrien-other-strings-in-pattern-races: H139: aidan obrien other strings in pattern races (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.