Hypotheses · trainer-named · H141-henderson-short-prices-in-the-autumn

H141: henderson short prices in the autumn

KILLEDredFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.005 on 267 bets (broad RED)

Starts the thread “H141: henderson short prices in the autumn” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the overnight batches
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: Nicky Henderson's jumpers at 4/1 or shorter in October and November. The yard starts late and brings them on for the spring; the name keeps the price short.

The rule

trainer LIKE 'Nicky Henderson%' AND month IN (10, 11) AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND sp_decimal <= 5

Reads: trainer, month, race_type, sp_decimal

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: trainer LIKE 'Nicky Henderson%' AND month IN (10, 11) AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND sp_decimal <= 5
Kind: all
Origin: research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
Refinements: none
Tier: C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 267
A/E: 1.00; winners vs the prices
SP return: -6.0%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +0.9%; 33 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 36.3%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

2020-221460.97

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

H141-henderson-short-prices-in-the-autumn Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.005 on 267 bets (broad RED)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for H141-henderson-short-prices-in-the-autumn (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea H141-henderson-short-prices-in-the-autumn: H141: henderson short prices in the autumn (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.