H142: nicholls first time out in the autumn

Mechanism and rationale

Paul Nicholls' jumpers on their first run for 150+ days in October and November: the yard famously has them ready for Chepstow and Wincanton.

The rule

trainer LIKE 'Paul Nicholls%' AND month IN (10, 11) AND days_since_last_run >= 150 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')

Reads: trainer, month, days_since_last_run, race_type

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

trainer LIKE 'Paul Nicholls%' AND month IN (10, 11) AND days_since_last_run >= 150 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Paul Nicholls%' AND month IN (10, 11) AND days_since_last_run >= 150 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Paul Nicholls%' AND month IN (10, 11) AND days_since_last_run >= 150 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Paul Nicholls%' AND month IN (10, 11) AND days_since_last_run >= 150 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

334

A/E

0.96

winners vs the prices

SP return

-9.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+78.0%

47 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 24.0%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H142-nicholls-first-time-out-in-the-autumn Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.958 on 365 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H142-nicholls-first-time-out-in-the-autumn (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H142-nicholls-first-time-out-in-the-autumn (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H142-nicholls-first-time-out-in-the-autumn (chase): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H142-nicholls-first-time-out-in-the-autumn (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H142-nicholls-first-time-out-in-the-autumn: H142: nicholls first time out in the autumn (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.