Hypotheses · trainer-named · H144-prescott-three-year-olds-in-middle-distance-handicaps
H144: prescott three year olds in middle distance handicaps
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.019 on 308 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H144: prescott three year olds in middle distance handicaps” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Sir Mark Prescott's three-year-olds in handicaps over a mile and a quarter or more, early in their handicap careers: qualified over short trips at two, then stepped up and run up a sequence.
The rule
trainer LIKE 'Sir Mark Prescott%' AND age = 3 AND is_handicap = 1 AND distance_yards >= 2200 AND prior_handicap_runs <= 3
Reads: trainer, age, is_handicap, distance_yards, prior_handicap_runs
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
trainer LIKE 'Sir Mark Prescott%' AND age = 3 AND is_handicap = 1 AND distance_yards >= 2200 AND prior_handicap_runs <= 3
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 308
- A/E
- 1.02
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -10.6%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +5.0%
- 52 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 31.5%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H144-prescott-three-year-olds-in-middle-distance-handicaps Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.019 on 308 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H144-prescott-three-year-olds-in-middle-distance-handicaps (broad): info
· importer
New idea H144-prescott-three-year-olds-in-middle-distance-handicaps: H144: prescott three year olds in middle distance handicaps (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.