Hypotheses · trainer-named · H146-ready-yards-with-early-two-year-old-debutants
H146: ready yards with early two year old debutants
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.004 on 952 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H146: ready yards with early two year old debutants” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Two-year-olds making their debut before July from yards that train them to win first time (Watson, Burke, Fahey, Hannon, Dascombe, Boughey): sharp, forward and drilled.
The rule
age = 2 AND prior_runs = 0 AND race_type = 'Flat' AND month <= 6 AND (trainer LIKE 'Archie Watson%' OR trainer LIKE 'K. R. Burke%' OR trainer LIKE 'Richard Fahey%' OR trainer LIKE 'Richard Hannon%' OR trainer LIKE 'Tom Dascombe%' OR trainer LIKE 'George Boughey%')
Reads: age, prior_runs, race_type, month, trainer
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
age = 2 AND prior_runs = 0 AND race_type = 'Flat' AND month <= 6 AND (trainer LIKE 'Archie Watson%' OR trainer LIKE 'K. R. Burke%' OR trainer LIKE 'Richard Fahey%' OR trainer LIKE 'Richard Hannon%' OR trainer LIKE 'Tom Dascombe%' OR trainer LIKE 'George Boughey%')
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 952
- A/E
- 1.00
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -16.8%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -6.1%
- 117 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 16.2%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H146-ready-yards-with-early-two-year-old-debutants Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.004 on 952 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H146-ready-yards-with-early-two-year-old-debutants (broad): info
· importer
New idea H146-ready-yards-with-early-two-year-old-debutants: H146: ready yards with early two year old debutants (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.