H147: educational yards fancied two year old debutants

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: two-year-old debutants at the head of the market from yards that educate first time (Gosden, Varian, Beckett, Haggas, Stoute, Charlton): the price is the pedigree and the name, and the run is a lesson.

The rule

age = 2 AND prior_runs = 0 AND race_type = 'Flat' AND sp_rank <= 2 AND (trainer LIKE '%Gosden%' OR trainer LIKE 'Roger Varian%' OR trainer LIKE 'Ralph Beckett%' OR trainer LIKE 'William Haggas%' OR trainer LIKE 'Sir Michael Stoute%' OR trainer LIKE '%Charlton%')

Reads: age, prior_runs, race_type, sp_rank, trainer

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

age = 2 AND prior_runs = 0 AND race_type = 'Flat' AND sp_rank <= 2 AND (trainer LIKE '%Gosden%' OR trainer LIKE 'Roger Varian%' OR trainer LIKE 'Ralph Beckett%' OR trainer LIKE 'William Haggas%' OR trainer LIKE 'Sir Michael Stoute%' OR trainer LIKE '%Charlton%')

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "seven furlongs or more",
    "rule": "(age = 2 AND prior_runs = 0 AND race_type = 'Flat' AND sp_rank <= 2 AND (trainer LIKE '%Gosden%' OR trainer LIKE 'Roger Varian%' OR trainer LIKE 'Ralph Beckett%' OR trainer LIKE 'William Haggas%' OR trainer LIKE 'Sir Michael Stoute%' OR trainer LIKE '%Charlton%')) AND (distance_yards >= 1540)"
  },
  {
    "name": "July onwards",
    "rule": "(age = 2 AND prior_runs = 0 AND race_type = 'Flat' AND sp_rank <= 2 AND (trainer LIKE '%Gosden%' OR trainer LIKE 'Roger Varian%' OR trainer LIKE 'Ralph Beckett%' OR trainer LIKE 'William Haggas%' OR trainer LIKE 'Sir Michael Stoute%' OR trainer LIKE '%Charlton%')) AND (month >= 7)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info July onwards · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

567

A/E

0.92

winners vs the prices

SP return

-15.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+0.7%

78 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 24.9%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H147-educational-yards-fancied-two-year-old-debutants Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [July onwards] RED A/E 0.918 on 567 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H147-educational-yards-fancied-two-year-old-debutants (July onwards): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H147-educational-yards-fancied-two-year-old-debutants (seven furlongs or more): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H147-educational-yards-fancied-two-year-old-debutants (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H147-educational-yards-fancied-two-year-old-debutants: H147: educational yards fancied two year old debutants (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.