H150: plot yards in handicaps after a break

Mechanism and rationale

Charles Byrnes and Emmet Mullins in handicaps with a horse off 60+ days: both yards win handicaps with horses that have been put away for the day.

The rule

(trainer LIKE 'C Byrnes%' OR trainer LIKE 'Emmet Mullins%') AND is_handicap = 1 AND days_since_last_run >= 60

Reads: trainer, is_handicap, days_since_last_run

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

(trainer LIKE 'C Byrnes%' OR trainer LIKE 'Emmet Mullins%') AND is_handicap = 1 AND days_since_last_run >= 60

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "((trainer LIKE 'C Byrnes%' OR trainer LIKE 'Emmet Mullins%') AND is_handicap = 1 AND days_since_last_run >= 60) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "in Britain",
    "rule": "((trainer LIKE 'C Byrnes%' OR trainer LIKE 'Emmet Mullins%') AND is_handicap = 1 AND days_since_last_run >= 60) AND (region = 'GB')"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "((trainer LIKE 'C Byrnes%' OR trainer LIKE 'Emmet Mullins%') AND is_handicap = 1 AND days_since_last_run >= 60) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info jumps · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

178

A/E

0.81

winners vs the prices

SP return

-36.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+104.6%

40 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 7.9%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H150-plot-yards-in-handicaps-after-a-break Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [in Britain] AMBER A/E 1.559 on 23 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H150-plot-yards-in-handicaps-after-a-break (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H150-plot-yards-in-handicaps-after-a-break (in Britain): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H150-plot-yards-in-handicaps-after-a-break (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H150-plot-yards-in-handicaps-after-a-break (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H150-plot-yards-in-handicaps-after-a-break: H150: plot yards in handicaps after a break (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.