H152: twiston davies at cheltenham before christmas

Mechanism and rationale

Nigel Twiston-Davies at Cheltenham from October to December: the local yard has its horses fit early and aims them at the home track's autumn meetings.

The rule

trainer LIKE 'Nigel%Twiston-Davies%' AND course = 'CHELTENHAM' AND month IN (10, 11, 12)

Reads: trainer, course, month

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

trainer LIKE 'Nigel%Twiston-Davies%' AND course = 'CHELTENHAM' AND month IN (10, 11, 12)

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Nigel%Twiston-Davies%' AND course = 'CHELTENHAM' AND month IN (10, 11, 12)) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "chase",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Nigel%Twiston-Davies%' AND course = 'CHELTENHAM' AND month IN (10, 11, 12)) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info chase · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

63

A/E

0.66

winners vs the prices

SP return

-40.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

–

8 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 9.5%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H152-twiston-davies-at-cheltenham-before-christmas Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.911 on 122 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H152-twiston-davies-at-cheltenham-before-christmas (chase): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H152-twiston-davies-at-cheltenham-before-christmas (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H152-twiston-davies-at-cheltenham-before-christmas (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H152-twiston-davies-at-cheltenham-before-christmas: H152: twiston davies at cheltenham before christmas (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.